Tsushima, Y., A. Abe-Ouchi, and S. Manabe, (2005) Radiative damping of annual variation in global mean surface temperature: comparison between observed and simulated feedback.- Climate dynamics, published online before print March 25, 2005

• Abstract:
  "The sensitivity of the global climate is essentially determined by the radiative damping of the global mean surface temperature anomaly through the outgoing radiation from the top of the atmosphere (TOA). Using the TOA fluxes of terrestrial and reflected solar radiation obtained from the Earth radiation budget experiment (ERBE), this study estimates the magnitude of the overall feedback, which modifies the radiative damping of the annual variation of the global mean surface temperature, and compare it with model simulations. Although the pattern of the annually varying anomaly is quite different from that of the global warming, the analysis conducted here may be used for assessing the systematic bias of the feedback that operates on the CO2-induced warming of the surface temperature.
  
  In the absence of feedback effect, the outgoing terrestrial radiation at the TOA is approximately follows the Stefan-Boltzmann’s fourth power of the planetary emission temperature. However, it deviates significantly from the blackbody radiation due to various feedbacks involving water vapor and cloud cover. In addition, the reflected solar radiation is altered by the feedbacks involving sea ice, snow and cloud, thereby affecting the radiative damping of surface temperature. The analysis of ERBE reveals that the radiative damping is weakened by as much as 70% due to the overall effect of feedbacks, and is only 30% of what is expected for the blackbody with the planetary emission temperature. Similar feedback analysis is conducted for three general circulation models of the atmosphere, which was used for the study of cloud feedback in the preceding study. The sign and magnitude of the overall feedback in the three models are similar to those of the observed.
  
  However, when it is subdivided into solar and terrestrial components, they are quite different from the observation mainly due to the failure of the models to simulate individually the solar and terrestrial components of the cloud feedback. It is therefore desirable to make the similar comparison not only for the overall feedback but also for its individual components such as albedo- and cloud-feedbacks. Although the pattern of the annually-varying anomaly is quite different from that of global warming, the methodology of the comparative analysis presented here may be used for the identification of the systematic bias of the overall feedback in a model. A proposal is made for the estimation of the best guess value of climate sensitivity using the outputs from many climate models submitted to the Intergovernmental panel on Climate Change."

What CERES Will Measure

"CERES will measure the energy at the top of the atmosphere, as well as estimate energy levels in the atmosphere and at the Earth’s surface. Using information from very high resolution cloud imaging instruments on the same spacecraft, CERES also will determine cloud properties, including altitude, thickness, and the size of the cloud particles. All of these measurements are critical for advancing the understanding of the Earth’s total climate system and the accuracy of climate prediction models."

Cloud Effects

"One of the most intriguing questions facing climate modelers today is how clouds affect the Earth’s climate and vice versa. The U.S. Global Change Research Program classifies understanding the role of clouds and the Earth’s energy budget as one of its highest scientific priorities. Understanding cloud effects requires a detailed knowledge of how clouds absorb and reflect sunlight, as well as how they absorb and re-emit outgoing heat emitted by the planet. For example, low, thick clouds primarily reflect incoming solar energy back to space causing cooling. Thin, high clouds, however, primarily trap outgoing heat and produce warming. To date, satellite studies have found that clouds have an overall cooling effect on the Earth.

Analyses of satellite data also indicate that clouds which form over water are very different from clouds which form over land. These differences affect the way clouds reflect sunlight back into space and how much heat emitted from the Earth the clouds absorb and re-emit. For example, over the equator in the eastern Pacific Ocean during El Niño events, there is a significant decrease in the amount of energy emitted by the Earth due to increased cloudiness. El Niño events occur when portions of the eastern Pacific Ocean become considerably warmer than normal, causing an increase in cloudiness over the region. These changes can affect weather patterns around the world."

Water Vapor Effects

"Water vapor in the atmosphere also impacts our daily weather and climate, though scientists are only beginning to understand how this complex mechanism works. Water vapor acts like a greenhouse gas and absorbs outgoing heat to warm the Earth. Because water vapor also condenses to make clouds, additional water vapor in the atmosphere also may increase the amount of clouds."